22:00 17 May 2022
In 2023, inflation in Poland will be the highest in the EU
Inflation in 2023 in Poland will amount to 7.3 percent on an annual basis – according to estimates prepared for the European Commission (EC). This means that the level of price increases in Poland next year will be the highest in the entire European Union.
According to the EC's spring forecast, the average annual HICP inflation in Poland in 2022 will amount to 11.6 percent y/y. Lithuania, Bulgaria and the Czech Republic will have higher inflation (12.5 percent, 11.9 percent and 11.7 percent, respectively).
However, the EC expects that wage expectations and Polish workers and disruptions in supply chains will also affect the level of core inflation in Poland, especially in 2022. This will make it still high in 2023.
High price increases will not be without impact on the Polish economy. Inflationary pressures, as well as war-related uncertainties in the markets, disruptions to supply chains and the NBP's inflation-targeted monetary policy are expected to limit GDP growth, the Commission forecasts. According to its calculations, economic growth in Poland is expected to slow down to 3.7 percent and 3.0 percent in 2022 and 2023, respectively.
