16:13 11 November 2024
NBP: with energy prices frozen, CPI inflation in ‘25 will be 4.3%
The National Bank of Poland's (NBP) November projection, assuming energy prices for households remain frozen, forecasts CPI inflation at 3.7% in 2024, 4.3% in 2025, and 2.8% in 2026. GDP growth is expected to be 2.7% in 2024, 3.5% in 2025, and 2.9% in 2026. Core inflation is projected at 4.3% in 2024-2025 and 3.7% in 2026. An alternative scenario assumes energy prices for households remain unchanged in 2025-2026, leading to higher inflation until mid-2025, then a return to near-zero inflation.
Lower wage growth will slow inflation, but increased disposable income may drive economic growth and inflationary pressures, especially on food prices in 2026.
