Retail sales increased by 21.1 percent on an annual basis in April 2021 in constant prices, but on a monthly basis, they decreased by 7.7 percent, the GUS reported. Economists expected a better reading. In April this year, shops were still mostly closed. May will be even better.
The consensus prepared by PAP Biznes pointed to an increase in retail sales in constant prices in April by 26.6 percent y/y and a 3.6 percent decrease m/m. In current prices, economists surveyed by PAP Biznes expected an increase of 28.4 percent y/y. This means that the final results were below analysts' expectations.
As mBank and PKO BP experts comment, the April sales increase is the so-called "base effect", which is most easily explained by the fact that the year-on-year reading is high, as the one from April 2020 was relatively weak. However, as PKO BP experts emphasize, April was a period of closing shopping centers, but in May it is already visible there was an "unprecedented revival" after spending on the cards of Poles. Also mBank analysts claim that the May data will see frostbite in the economy.