Despite a gradual recovery in parts of the Polish economy, the gastronomy sector is experiencing a marked downturn in 2025, driven by economic worries, uncooperative summer weather, surging competition, and mounting labor expenses.

Summer’s unpredictable conditions — frequent storms, rain, and heatwaves — coupled with a massive outflow of consumers traveling abroad, have taken a heavy toll. Outdoor dining failed to materialize, particularly along Poland’s Baltic coast, where some restaurants closed their doors as early as July, abandoning hopes for the remainder of the season. A quick visit to Warsaw’s Okęcie Airport tells the story: taxi drivers there claim they have never seen so many Poles depart for foreign holidays, taking their wallets (and appetites) to dine in more exotic destinations.

Consumers, too, are tightening their belts. Restaurant turnover — the number of guests multiplied by average spend — has slumped. Diners have noticed that the cost of a meal in Warsaw now rivals prices in many other European cities. While the average check has risen in line with inflation, the number of guests has dropped sharply. Lunchtime business has been hit hardest, likely due to fewer office workers on site or employees opting to bring food from home rather than venture out.

Industry turnover in Poland is projected to rise from €21.77 billion in 2024 to €28.48 billion by 2028. Yet these forecasts contrast starkly with restaurateurs’ real-time struggles amid rising costs, particularly higher wages. Net margins have fallen by 10 percentage points — from 10–15% down to a meagre 5%. Meanwhile, sector debt has ballooned: unpaid obligations climbed nearly 23% in 2025, surpassing PLN 1 billion. Notably, online portals are flooded with restaurants listed for sale.

If this picture were not bleak enough, uncertainty looms over both consumer spending and the labor supply should the war in Ukraine end soon. Unless broader economic headwinds ease, the industry may continue to wobble under operational strain. 

For over 30 years, John Gabrovic has been influential in Poland’s restaurant and real estate industries creating successful dining and leisure brands, food halls, and also helping international real estate developers “create community” within their mixed-use and retail assets.