18:23 1 September 2025
Economic growth data shows GDP grew by 3.4% in Q2
Poland’s GDP grew by 3.4% in Q2 2025, confirming earlier estimates by the Central Statistical Office. The structure of growth, however, revealed an unexpected 1% drop in investments, despite forecasts of a 4.5% increase fueled by EU recovery funds (KPO). Analysts are divided on the reasons: Bank Millennium points to weak private demand and uncertainty from trade wars, while Credit Agricole blames lower public investment, particularly in infrastructure. This setback is disappointing given government pledges to make 2025 a breakthrough year for investment.
Despite this weakness, the economy remains resilient thanks to strong private consumption, which rose by 4.4% in Q2, far outpacing Q1’s 2.5%. Early Q3 data shows retail sales up 4.8% in July, with robust demand for durable goods. Economists expect consumption to remain the main growth driver, supported by falling inflation and interest rates. Exports also provided a modest lift, subtracting less from GDP growth than earlier in the year.
While investment recovery may be delayed until 2026 as KPO absorption shifts forward, economists still project full-year GDP growth of around 3.5–3.6%, above last year’s 2.9%, albeit with a less favorable structure driven more by consumption than capital spending.
(pb.pl)
