19:32 18 November 2025
Poland’s economy remain resilient as złoty becomes one of the strongest emerging-market currencies
Poland’s economy remains resilient, and the złoty has become one of the strongest emerging-market currencies since early 2025. The EUR/PLN rate has shown low volatility and is expected to remain near 4.25, supported by solid macroeconomic fundamentals, relatively high interest rates, and a favorable external environment. Although U.S. tariffs on the EU create uncertainty, Poland’s exposure is small, while strong fiscal stimulus in Germany benefits its outlook.
Economic growth exceeds 3% and is forecast to reach about 3.5%, placing Poland among the world’s twenty largest economies, with rising international recognition. However, growth is uneven: consumption is strong, but investment remains weak, and the labor market shows early signs of cooling, with unemployment rising and wage growth slowing.
The main risk is the widening fiscal deficit, projected at around 7% of GDP, which has led Fitch and Moody’s to assign Poland a negative rating outlook. Despite this, public debt remains moderate by EU standards. Further NBP rate cuts are likely, potentially lowering the reference rate to 3.5% in 2026, without significantly weakening the currency.
(WBJ)
