Fitch Ratings forecasts a decline in GDP for Poland at the level of 3.5 percent this year, and then an increase – by 4.5 percent in 2021 and by 3.3 percent in 2022. The rating agency reminded that in second quarter of 2020 GDP for Poland dropped by 8.9 percent q/q (seasonally adjusted) and indicated that it expects a return to growth in third quarter due to the easing of pandemic restrictions and a rebound in economic activity.
"The risks are mainly related to the potential implementation of a new lockdown, if coronavirus cases increase sharply again. Most government-based wage-support measures end in September, which could make unemployment rise at least temporarily" the report reads.
Fitch expects the strong investment growth – especially in the public sector – from fourth quarter of 2020 and later in 2021, thanks to both the base effect and the increased absorption of EU funds. According to the forecasts, the consumer spending in Poland will decline by 5 percent this year, and will rebound by 5.8 percent in 2021 and 3.6 percent in 2022. At the same time,a 4 percent decrease in investment is expected this year, and then increases, by 5.8 percent and 2.9 percent, respectively.
Fitch also revised the global GDP forecast for 2020 to minus 4.4 percent from minus 4.6 percent.