Brazilian Pollster Shakes Up Polish Election Forecasts with Surprise Nawrocki Lead
17:38
In the final days of Poland’s presidential campaign, Brazilian polling firm AtlasIntel defied mainstream predictions by placing Karol Nawrocki narrowly ahead of Rafał Trzaskowski. Despite a recent image crisis involving a controversial property deal in Gdańsk, AtlasIntel’s poll showed Nawrocki leading with 29.1 percent support, edging out Trzaskowski at 28.9 percent – contrary to other polls and betting markets that consistently gave Trzaskowski a five-point lead.
The São Paulo-based company also projected that Nawrocki would hold a stronger position in a potential runoff. Although AtlasIntel ultimately ranked fourth in post-election poll accuracy, its bold forecast has attracted renewed interest from analysts and political gamblers alike.
“We know some will accuse us of bias, but our data speaks for itself – both in Poland and globally,” CEO Andrei Roman said.
Known for accurate polling in the U.S., AtlasIntel's unorthodox methods are now being watched more closely in Europe’s volatile political landscape.
