17:38 23 May 2025
Brazilian Pollster Shakes Up Polish Election Forecasts with Surprise Nawrocki Lead
In the final days of Poland’s presidential campaign, Brazilian polling firm AtlasIntel defied mainstream predictions by placing Karol Nawrocki narrowly ahead of Rafał Trzaskowski. Despite a recent image crisis involving a controversial property deal in Gdańsk, AtlasIntel’s poll showed Nawrocki leading with 29.1 percent support, edging out Trzaskowski at 28.9 percent – contrary to other polls and betting markets that consistently gave Trzaskowski a five-point lead.
The São Paulo-based company also projected that Nawrocki would hold a stronger position in a potential runoff. Although AtlasIntel ultimately ranked fourth in post-election poll accuracy, its bold forecast has attracted renewed interest from analysts and political gamblers alike.
“We know some will accuse us of bias, but our data speaks for itself – both in Poland and globally,” CEO Andrei Roman said.
Known for accurate polling in the U.S., AtlasIntel's unorthodox methods are now being watched more closely in Europe’s volatile political landscape.
