According to Chief Investment Office GWM Investment Research in UBS, the Delta variant, or others currently in circulation, is not expected to disrupt the economic recovery.
“Vaccines appear to be effective at reducing healthcare burdens. Multiple sources of real-world data indicate that vaccines are still effective against variants, including Delta. UK data shows sharply rising new cases, yet hospitalizations remain well below the levels of previous waves. A similar pattern is visible in Israel, where 86 percent of the population is fully vaccinated and Delta is the predominant virus strain. Government data from Singapore also continues to show limited serious illness among breakthrough infections. With the virus continuing to circulate, new variants should be expected to emerge. However, early research from the US suggests that the diversity of mutations is declining over time and that this trend is more evident in vaccinated people. Our base case is that vaccines will remain broadly effective against emerging variants,” the UBS report reads.
The spread of the Delta variant has led to an increase in global Covid-19 cases and prompted the reimposition of social and economic restrictions in some countries. Japan has declared another state of emergency. Korea, Indonesia, and Vietnam have introduced additional measures, and even Israel – a world leader in the vaccination drive – has reimposed some restrictions and will offer a third booster vaccine.