15:48 2 June 2025
Economist: after elections, fiscal tightening may be limited to current law
Following the presidential elections, economists at Bank Pekao expect only passive fiscal tightening, limited to what is required by current laws. No major changes are anticipated in the short term for interest rate policy, as the Monetary Policy Council (RPP) remains cautious and plans to cut rates by another 50–75 basis points this year.
The election surprise has led to a rise in the EUR/PLN exchange rate and a broader sell-off of Polish assets, though its overall scale should remain limited. Key risks include potential early parliamentary elections and a shift in ruling coalition. Although inflation data surprised recently, a rate cut this week is unlikely—more attention will be on July’s meeting and NBP President’s communication.
