20:05 22 April 2025
ING lowers Polish GDP growth forecast for ‘25
Economists at ING Bank Śląski have revised Poland’s 2025 GDP growth forecast down to 3.2% from 3.5%, citing reduced consumption and investment due to U.S. trade policies. In March, industrial output rose 2.5% y/y, mainly due to a low base in 2024. However, risks persist, including a potential trade war and supply chain disruptions.
Construction output fell 1.1% y/y, disappointing analysts, especially in infrastructure projects. Housing market indicators also declined. Wage growth slowed to 7.7% y/y, with employment down 0.9%. ING expects further wage deceleration and stable employment later in 2025. Slowing inflation and labor market cooling could support interest rate cuts, with ING forecasting a 125bp reduction this year.
(pb.pl)
