21:55 4 December 2024
OECD forecasts 3.4% GDP growth for Poland in 2025
The OECD projects Poland's GDP to grow by 3.4% in 2025, with inflation (CPI) reaching 5.0%, according to its latest Economic Outlook report. Economic growth is expected to slow to 3.0% in 2026, as CPI inflation declines to 3.9%.
The report highlights private consumption growth driven by rising real wages and gradual interest rate reductions. Investment is predicted to rebound in 2025, supported by EU fund disbursements, following a slowdown in 2024. Risks to these forecasts include labor shortages, difficulty absorbing EU funds, and potential escalation of the war in Ukraine.
Poland's budget deficit is forecast to remain at 5.8% of GDP in 2025, with fiscal consolidation expected from 2026 onwards. The central bank is anticipated to reduce the reference rate to 4% by the end of 2026 as inflationary pressures ease.
The OECD underscores the need for targeted social benefits, green taxation, and labor reforms to strengthen long-term growth.
Source: biznes.pap.pl
