Poland’s economic growth will amount to 4.3% this year (compared to an earlier forecast of 4.6%) and next year it will reach 3.7% (unchanged forecast), while the Monetary Policy Council will leave interest rates unchanged until the end of 2022, economists of PKO Bank Polski believe.
“We are still cautiously optimistic about the economic outlook. We forecast GDP growth at 4.3% y/y this year, which is a lower forecast than a quarter ago, but higher than at the beginning of this year,” said Piotr Bujak, the chief economist at PKO BP.
According to the bank, the downturn in Germany is beginning to have a negative impact on the results of the Polish economy (the weakening of upward trends in the industry). The role of the economy’s stabilizer will primarily be played by the fiscal package, the main part of which entered into force during Q3 2019.
On the other hand, analysts emphasize that in their forecasts they still do not take into account such zero-one events as a hard Brexit, whose direct effects could lead Poland’s GDP growth to decrease by up to one percentage point.