4:10 23 January 2026
Poland’s 2026 growth peak
Poland’s GDP growth is forecast to accelerate to 3.7% in 2026, according to Velo Bank chief economist Piotr Arak. He argues the country could rank among the EU’s top performers thanks to solid growth paired with low inflation and unemployment. Unlike recent years, when consumption led expansion, 2026 growth is expected to hinge on double-digit investment increases financed through KPO and structural funds—seen as a draw for foreign capital.
Arak cautions that 2026 may represent a “peak” year before GDP settles at roughly 3% from 2027 onward. He warns that high nominal investment may not translate into productivity gains and that labor shortages and fast wage growth, without matching innovation, risk eroding competitiveness.
Velo Bank also expects the NBP reference rate to fall from 4.00% to 3.25% in 2026, assuming inflation stays near the 2.3–2.7% target and core inflation eases despite wage pressures.
