14:00 29 August 2025
Poland’s August Inflation Slows to 2.8 Percent, Below Forecasts
Poland’s consumer price index (CPI) slowed to 2.8 percent y/y in August, according to flash data from Statistics Poland (GUS). The reading came in slightly below market expectations of 2.9 percent. Monthly, prices fell by 0.1 percent, compared with forecasts of no change.
Food prices rose 4.8 percent y/y but declined 0.1 percent m/m, while energy prices increased 2.3 percent y/y and 0.1 percent m/m. Fuel prices, however, dropped sharply by 7.7 percent y/y and 1.9 percent m/m. In July, inflation stood at 3.1 percent y/y and 0.3 percent m/m.
Analysts say the lower-than-expected reading strengthens the case for an interest rate cut by the Monetary Policy Council (RPP) at its meeting on September 3. Economists from Pekao highlighted that core inflation likely eased to around 3.1–3.2 percent, calling it a “positive disinflationary signal.” mBank also noted the data gives the RPP room to cut rates.
ING economists expect a September cut to be almost certain, but warned further easing could be delayed due to high fiscal deficit projections for 2026. Monika Kurtek, chief economist at Bank Pocztowy, added that the government’s draft 2026 budget may also influence the council’s timing.
