Polish GDP accelerates

Poland’s economy is gaining momentum, with GDP rising 3.7% in Q3, according to preliminary data from GUS—the strongest reading in three years and exactly in line with market consensus. Growth continues to outpace the EU average of 1.5% and the eurozone’s 1.3%.

Private consumption remains the main engine, supported by low unemployment, steady real income gains, and improved sentiment. Economists expect consumption to have grown about 4.8% year-on-year, helped by firm retail sales and rising demand for services.

After a soft Q2, investment appears to be strengthening as well. PKO BP estimates a 5.1% rise, with machinery and equipment leading the rebound. Capital goods sales jumped 16% in September, and construction investment returned to growth.

Banks broadly maintain their 2025 GDP forecasts at 3.5–3.6%. Strong domestic demand offsets weak exports, while the data argue for caution on further rate cuts.