18:18 18 July 2026
Poland’s interest rates depend largely on situation in Middle East
The National Bank of Poland kept its reference rate unchanged at 3.75% in July, but a rate cut later in 2026 remains possible. According to the Polish Economic Institute, the decision will depend mainly on the conflict in the Middle East and its effect on energy prices. The NBP expects inflation to rise temporarily to 3% in the third quarter and 3.2% in the fourth. Domestic inflationary pressure appears limited, as wage growth slowed to 5.8% y/y in May.
However, higher foreign interest rates could weaken the zloty, raising the cost of imported fuel, raw materials, and production components and reducing room for monetary easing.
(pb.pl)
