The commodity structure of Polish exports indicates that production has been moved from Asia or the USA to locations closer to the euro area, indicated PKO BP analysts. In their opinion, the position of Poland as an exporter of goods and services will continue to strengthen.
The Polish economy has shown its (relative) resilience to the pandemic in many ways. One of them was the strengthening of the position of domestic exporters as important suppliers of goods to the eurozone, the countries of which are Poland's most important trading partners, indicated PKO BP analysts in the report.
They calculated that thanks to the fall in oil prices and the slowdown of import-intensive (usually) investments, the surplus in trade in goods increased from 0.3 percent GDP after January 2020 to 3 percent after April 2021 (in terms of 12M).
According to PKO BP economists, consumer goods were the main source of the increase in the share of Polish exports in imports in the euro area.
"This was due to several factors, including changes in the consumption structure in Western Europe in the face of the closure of a large part of the service sector, changes in the work mode during lockdowns (at the so-called home office), and an increase in demand medical products," the report reads.
And although – according to PKO BP economists – the factors behind the strengthening of exports may lose their strength in the second half of this year, as the economy returns to normal operation, their impact will not fully disappear. Remote work, in their opinion, will stay with us forever, and the fear of the pandemic will also stay with us for a long time.