Przemysław Felicki, Director, Capital Markets Department at CBRE

In 2025, the commercial real estate investment market in Poland was dominated by capital from Scandinavia, the Baltic states, and the Czech Republic. The gap left by Western investors was also filled by Polish investors, who already accounted for 19% of the total transaction volume. Polish entrepreneurs are becoming increasingly active, seeking passive income and stability. Although the total value of investments is lower compared to the previous year and amounts to EUR 4.45 billion, there are already signs of a return of Western investors. Another positive trend is the growing willingness of banks to finance projects.

Solid foundations for growth can be seen in the office sector, especially in Warsaw (79% of the 2025 volume consisted of office assets), where the leasing market is very strong. Very little new space is being developed, and what is delivered is leased almost immediately. Rents are rising, and vacancy rates are falling, reaching 3–4% in the best locations. This situation will increase investor activity, especially in the second half of next year.

In the retail sector, a significant number of transactions is already visible. These mainly concern portfolios of retail parks (54% of the volume), so-called convenience and typical schemes. There will be even more such transactions in 2026. Activity in the shopping center segment is also increasing. The retail sector offers high capitalization rates, market fundamentals are solid, and therefore it may deliver high returns.

Investments in the logistics and warehouse market mainly involve two types of transactions. The first is the selection of assets that provide secure, long-term, and stable leases. The second involves acquiring buildings that are currently attractively priced and offer real growth potential.

A sector that will be particularly important for investment activity in 2026 is the institutional private rented sector (PRS), where we are awaiting the completion of a major transaction involving the acquisition of Resi4Rent by a German company. This is an important event for the Polish market, which has generated strong interest from a wide group of investors. We see that Poland is attracting funds that have not previously been active in the country. In 2026, activity in developer consolidation will also increase, with more joint ventures. It will be a good year for this sector.

Polish Business Seizes the Opportunity

Local capital already accounts for one-fifth of transactions and will continue to grow strongly. A smaller number of large players in the investment market, and consequently less competition, creates opportunities for Polish investors. Polish entrepreneurs with profitable businesses and accumulated savings are taking advantage of these opportunities, viewing commercial real estate as an additional asset class that provides stable returns. Many of these entrepreneurs have already reached business maturity and want to secure their families’ future.

Market Drivers

A positive trend that will also be visible in 2026 is the much more active approach of banks to financing commercial real estate investments. We are observing increased competition among banks and improvements in the terms they offer. The Polish market is perceived as healthy compared to other countries in the region, which is appreciated by international lenders.

The investment sector in 2026 will also be influenced by the situation in Ukraine. We already see increased activity among tenants who have relocated to Poland, moving their operations from high-risk regions. The future reconstruction of Ukraine represents a major opportunity for Poland. It will be an important signal for investment and job creation, and a stimulus for the entire economy.

Translated from Polish. 

(WBJ)