23:11 12 May 2021
EC raises Polish GDP forecast for 2021 by 0.9 pp up to 4%
The European Commission (EC) has revised its forecast for this year's GDP growth in Poland to 4 percent compared to the expected in February this year growth at the level of 3.1 percent, results from the winter forecast of the European Commission. The forecast for 2022 is an increase of 5.4 percent (compared to 5.1 percent growth forecasted in February this year).
The unemployment rate in Poland is forecasted at 3.5 percent this year. and 3.3 percent in 2022. According to the Commission, HICP inflation will reach 3.5 percent in 2021 and will slow to 2.9 percent in 2022.
Meanwhile, according to Paweł Borys, the president of the Polish Development Fund, a strong rebound in economic activity is expected, and GDP growth in Poland may amount to as much as 5 percent in 2021.
In turn, Deputy Prime Minister Jarosław Gowin informed that the forecasts of the Ministry of Development, Labor, and Technology regarding the Polish economy are moderately optimistic – according to them, throughout 2021, Poland's GDP will increase by at least 4 percent.
"We will manage to slow down the pace of decline despite the fact that the entire first quarter was a time of a huge worsening of the third wave of the pandemic. We expect the decline in GDP for the first three months of 2021 to be 1.5 percent," Gowin added.
On Friday, the Central Statistical Office (GUS) will publish a quick estimate of gross domestic product for the first quarter of 2021. Economists surveyed by PAP Biznes expect that GDP in Q1 fell by 1.2 percent y/y. Throughout 2021, the market expects an increase of 4.3 percent.
