20:00 15 September 2026
Energy crisis may lead to further increase in inflation
Poland’s inflation could exceed 4.5% in early 2027 and reach 5% in a worse-case scenario if the energy crisis continues. Inflation was 3.4% in August, but rising oil, fuel and gas prices are expected to push it higher, potentially increasing household electricity, gas and heating bills. The government may respond with tax cuts or price freezes ahead of elections, although such measures would strain the budget. The crisis may persist because it is being driven by Middle Eastern conflicts, militia activity in Yemen and Iraq, and Ukrainian attacks on Russian energy infrastructure.
Markets are pricing in four 0.25 percentage point rate increases by both the ECB and Poland’s central bank, although falling energy prices could quickly weaken the case for further tightening.
(pb.pl)
