3:56 29 January 2026
Poland set for strong growth
Poland is on track to become Europe’s economic growth leader, according to a new report by Pekao Bank. Analysts forecast GDP growth of around 4% in 2026, placing Warsaw among the fastest-growing European capitals. Growth will be supported by accelerating investment, which is expected to match private consumption as a key driver of the economy, alongside wage growth of about 5% and low inflation.
Pekao economists project average CPI inflation of roughly 1.9% year on year, well below the central bank’s target, helped by a still-closing demand gap, low global commodity prices, and imports of cheaper goods from China. In this environment, the National Bank of Poland’s reference rate is expected to fall to 3.25% in 2025, below market consensus, with room for cuts largely exhausted by mid-year.
Public debt growth is forecast to slow, though debt is still expected to reach about 66.5% of GDP this year and approach 70% by 2027. Pekao also notes that low inflation should support a stable labor market, even as wage growth moderates in 2026.
