The Polish economy will shrink by 4.6 percent in 2020 and will expand by 4.3 percent in 2021, as the HICP inflation declines to 2.7 percent in 2020 and edges up to 2.8 percent in 2021, the European Commission (EC) said in its Spring 2020 Economic Forecast.
In May’s forecast, the EC expected Poland’s GDP decline at 4.3 percent in 2020 and see a 4.1-percent increase in 2021.
According to the EC, despite Poland’s government intervention and economic support, consumption in Poland in 2020 will suffer, as consumers will be more likely to save and refrain from shopping due to the uncertainty and threat of the coronavirus epidemic. “This, combined with broken supply chains and a drop in orders in March and April, and low confidence of entrepreneurs will probably have an impact on investment. The commission expects them to collapse in the second quarter and only a partial rebound is expected,” EC said.