Over the next three years, retail sales volume in Poland is expected to grow at a rate of nearly 3% annually. Supply is also increasing, particularly in retail parks in smaller cities, which are attracting interest from both developers and investment funds. Experts from advisory firm JLL discuss the key findings from the “Retail Insights” analysis.

The Polish economy stands out positively compared to the rest of Europe, providing a strong foundation for further growth in the retail sector. According to Oxford Economics forecasts, between 2026 and 2030, the country’s GDP will grow at an average annual rate of 2.4%, significantly faster than the eurozone as a whole (just under 1.5%). Thanks to relatively low unemployment and rising wages (although the pace of increases is noticeably slower than in recent years), Poles maintain a high propensity to consume. Another advantage of Poland over “old” EU countries is its large working-age population. The dependency ratio—i.e., the proportion of non-working-age people (children and seniors) to those employed—stands at 54.7%, compared to nearly 70% in major EU countries such as France, Germany, and Italy. All this contributes to the rapid growth of retail in Poland—according to forecasts, total sales volume will increase by an average of 2.9% annually over the next three years.

An interesting phenomenon is that e-commerce is significantly less widespread in Poland than in most EU countries.

 "For several years, online transactions have accounted for a stable 9–10% of total retail sales, while the EU average is 14%, and in the UK as much as 28%. Forecasts indicate that by 2030, e-commerce in the EU and the UK will grow at an annual rate of 5.2%, much faster than traditional retail (3.3% annually). However, Poles, like Spaniards and Italians, are strongly attached to traditional shopping models, and the development of e-commerce in Poland is noticeably slower," says Sandra Ludwig, Head of Retail Investment EMEA, JLL.

Retail parks still leading

Recent years in Poland’s retail market have seen intensive development of retail parks and convenience shopping centers, which accounted for 80% of new supply in 2025 (compared to just around 30% in 2017). Last year, no new shopping malls were delivered in Poland, and only two large-scale projects of this type are currently planned.

Markets in large and medium-sized agglomerations are already close to saturation—cities with over 100,000 inhabitants have approximately 1,100 sq m of retail space per 1,000 people. In smaller towns with 30,000 to 100,000 residents, this figure averages around 700–800 sq m. Even less, just 200 sq m per 1,000 inhabitants, is available in towns with populations between 10,000 and 30,000. It is therefore not surprising that between 2023 and 2025, new supply of retail parks and smaller centers in these locations reached as much as 325,000 sq m, most of which were projects under 10,000 sq m.

At the other end of the spectrum are the largest agglomerations, where the development of convenience retail formats is driven by suburbanization and new residential investments on city outskirts. For comparison, this segment added another 250,000 sq m of retail space between 2023 and 2025.

"We anticipate further growth, particularly in the retail park segment, which will continue to dominate new supply over the next 2–3 years. Projects currently under construction exceed 500,000 sq m, and including additional investments that may still commence, we expect another record level of new supply, close to the 700,000 sq m delivered in 2025. Developers’ and investors’ plans—both domestic and international—remain ambitious for 2027 as well. However, given increasing market saturation and the pace of development, some projects may be abandoned or postponed. Market players are seeking new opportunities and attractive land plots in locations where supply remains limited, even despite relatively lower purchasing power of local consumers." comments Maciej Kotowski, Director, Research & Consultancy, JLL.

Increased investor activity

Last year recorded the third-highest result in history in terms of the number of transactions in commercial real estate. All key market segments, from offices through logistics to retail, saw increased transaction activity, continuing an upward trend since 2023.

In the retail sector, retail parks and retail warehousing assets proved to be a strong magnet for capital—segments that consistently attract the greatest investor interest.

Importantly, last year was characterized by a very broad base of capital sources. Investors from nearly all major geographic regions were active in the Polish market, with each region recording at least several transactions. This demonstrates systematic, long-term interest in the market, rather than occasional investments.

It is also worth noting that new players and private investors are becoming increasingly active, having previously been less involved in this type of investment.

"A return of large transactions and sale-and-leaseback deals—recently popular in other sectors—is expected later this year. New investors are moving from the analysis phase to concrete actions. While foreign capital is still expected to dominate this year, the share of Polish investors is steadily increasing." comments Agnieszka Kołat, Executive Director, Head of Retail Investment, JLL.

Translated from Polish. 

(Press Materials)