The draft “Transmission Network Development Plan for 2027–2036” published by Polish Power Transmission and Distribution Operator (PSE) is the first document of this importance to clearly identify the needs of the data center sector. The forecast of electricity and capacity demand was prepared based on submitted applications for grid connection conditions as well as available industry data. This approach makes it possible to precisely assess the potential of individual locations and adapt energy infrastructure to actual demand.

The use of industry data in PSE’s official planning documents marks a shift from declarative thinking about digital transformation to its real inclusion in grid planning. It is a step toward greater investment predictability and better alignment of energy infrastructure with the needs of a modern economy,” comments Piotr Kowalski, Managing Director of the Polish Data Center Association (PLDCA).

The data center market today: small share, high growth dynamics

Current estimates show that despite rapid growth, the Polish data center market remains a relatively small electricity consumer at the national level. With total installed capacity estimated at approximately 200 MW, annual electricity consumption by data centers currently amounts to around 1.7–1.8 TWh.

By comparison, Poland’s average national power demand is approximately 20,000 MW, translating into annual electricity consumption of about 175 TWh. This means that data centers currently account for roughly 1% of total national electricity consumption.

These figures clearly show the starting point. The share of data centers in national electricity consumption is still small, but this is precisely why the sector can be developed in an orderly and predictable manner. The growth dynamics of the sector justify the need for long-term planning. Importantly, data centers already stand out in terms of their energy sourcing structure—according to European Commission data, the average share of renewable energy in the energy mix of reported facilities reaches 87 percent*. This demonstrates that the sector is not only growing, but is also setting the direction for the energy transition,” emphasizes Piotr Kowalski.

How much energy will data centers need?

According to the draft Transmission Network Development Plan, electricity demand from data centers is expected to grow from the current level of approximately 1.7–1.8 TWh per year to around 17–18 TWh by the mid-2030s, representing nearly a tenfold increase over a decade.

Within the overall power system, data centers will nevertheless remain a smaller electricity consumer than industry, whose total consumption—including both existing installations and new projects—is projected to exceed 50 TWh annually over the same period and remain the dominant category of energy demand in the economy.

At the same time, PSE’s analyses indicate a significant shift in the structure of demand growth. While new industrial projects will generate a relatively moderate increase in electricity demand, the growth dynamics of data centers are markedly higher.

The data show that by 2036, electricity demand from new data center investments will increase significantly. At present, Poland—despite being the sixth-largest economy in the European Union—accounts for only 2% of Europe’s total computing capacity. The outlook outlined in PSE’s plan offers a realistic opportunity to close this gap over the long term, as a natural result of the country’s digitalization. Data centers are critical infrastructure supporting industry, services, and the public sector, particularly in the areas of cloud computing and artificial intelligence. As such, the development of computing capacity becomes a driving force for all branches of the modern economy,” explains Krystian Pypłacz, Data Center Market Expert at PLDCA.

The increase in grid connection capacity for data centers to approximately 3 GW by 2036, as forecast by PSE, should be treated as a potential scenario dependent on the pace of grid investment and the efficiency of connection processes, rather than as an automatically guaranteed outcome.

The plan is the foundation; execution will determine success

PLDCA positively assesses PSE’s announcements regarding the modernization and construction of approximately 140 power substations, as well as the development of transmission infrastructure, including HVDC lines enabling the delivery of electricity from new generation sources to major demand centers.

The Network Development Plan is an essential foundation. The key challenge now is translating it into a concrete timetable of works and investment decisions, particularly in regions with the highest concentration of digital projects, such as the Warsaw metropolitan area. Today, the data center industry primarily needs available capacity in specific locations—not just strategy, but physical infrastructure.” says Krystian Pypłacz.

Translated from Polish. 

(WBJ)