13:42 13 December 2025
S&P: pressure on Poland’s rating may increase
S&P Global Ratings warns that pressure on Poland’s credit rating could increase if the country’s medium-term economic growth outlook deteriorates significantly, especially alongside rising macroeconomic imbalances or external shocks such as spillovers from Russia’s war against Ukraine. The agency notes that deep fiscal consolidation will be difficult ahead of the 2027 parliamentary elections, given strong political polarization. Poland has seen one of the sharpest increases in budget deficits in Central and Eastern Europe, driven by weak revenue growth, high social spending, and defense outlays of 4-5% of GDP – the highest in NATO. S&P forecasts elevated deficits and rising public debt through 2028.
These risks are partly offset by Poland’s resilient economy, solid growth prospects, moderate inflation, and continued access to EU financial support.
