18:25 24 November 2025
Wage dynamics slowed down from 7.5 to 6.6% y/y in October
Wage growth in Poland slowed sharply in October, falling from 7.5% to 6.6% y/y, a much stronger deceleration than forecast. According to Pekao analysts, wage dynamics have now entered the neutral zone for inflation – around 5–6% annually – paving the way for further interest-rate cuts. The slowdown was driven mainly by the public sector: mining wages fell 1.6% y/y and energy-sector wages rose only 1.3% y/y. More market-driven sectors still show 7–9% y/y growth. Real wages increased 3.8% y/y, close to real GDP growth, meaning wage pressures no longer fuel inflation.
Analysts expect service-price inflation to ease and predict another MPC rate cut in December. Employment continues to edge down, signaling a fragile labour market.
