Post pandemic recession will begin just when the money from the government shields runs out and the first wave of company bankruptcy can be expected in the third quarter of this year, assess the economists from Euler Hermes. Among the most threatened industries are, among others HoReCa and international transport. The furniture and clothing industry can also write off the current year. All trade, including food and cleaning products, slows down, and consumers and companies limit purchases because they are waiting for the development of economic events in fear of recession. Uncertainty will also change Poles' shopping habits: consumers will choose cheaper products, pressure on prices and margins will return.
“The real crisis caused by the pandemic will only show up when the money from all shields runs out. The cash transfers that companies have received and are still getting, are admittedly big money, but they were mainly used to ensure that enterprises survive when the economy was at a standstill and in many industries there was no sale at all,” Tomasz Starus, board member of Euler Hermes, said.
At the moment, the Polish economy is in the process of defrosting, but in many industries companies still have a turnover of 30-50 percent lower than before the epidemic. This means that when the financial support from the government runs out, they will have to manage on their own, still covering high operating costs (rents, employee costs, etc.) from their own, much smaller revenues. Many of them cannot cope with this, and the effect will be an increase in the scale of payment gridlocks, pressure to reduce employment and pay cuts.