Zloty shows resilience to geopolitical tensions

Recent Russian drone incursions into Polish airspace had little lasting impact on the złoty, which quickly recovered and is now stronger than before. Analysts at Ebury expect the EUR/PLN exchange rate to remain stable, as investors focus more on upcoming macroeconomic data and Moody’s review of Poland’s credit rating, which could shift to a negative outlook due to fiscal pressures. Geopolitical tensions from the “Zapad 2025” military drills may cause brief volatility but are unlikely to dominate markets.
Globally, attention is on the U.S. Federal Reserve’s expected rate cut and the ECB’s steady policy, while the Bank of England faces stagflation, keeping rates unchanged amid weak growth and persistent inflation.