17:18 10 February 2025
EY: Polish GDP will be 3.5%, percentage rates reduced by 75 PB in ‘25
Economists at EY predict that Poland’s GDP will grow by 3.5% y/y in 2025, up from an estimated 2.9% in 2024. The consumer price index (CPI) inflation is expected to remain at 5% in 2024, the highest in the EU, and will only return to the NBP’s 2.5% target by 2028. Growth is primarily driven by government spending on social benefits, rising public wages, and military investments.
Consumption is projected to grow by 3% in 2024, while investments and exports will accelerate due to EU Recovery Fund spending and stronger external demand. However, private investments declined by 5%, affected by high interest rates and reduced profit margins.
EY anticipates gradual interest rate cuts of 75 basis points per year in 2025-2027, with Poland’s benchmark rate falling to 3.5% by 2027. However, inflationary pressures, including higher tobacco taxes and rising energy costs, may slow monetary easing.
(ISBnews)
