Retail sales in June at constant prices dropped by 1.3 percent y/y, the Central Statistical Office (GUS) reported. Though it is still in the red, but minus 1.3 percent compared with minus 7.7 percent in May, and especially with minus 22.9 percent in April, the improvement is marked. This data is also better than expected by economists. On a month-to-month basis, sales increased by 8.4 percent.
As the GUS calculates, the sales in the furniture, TV and household appliances categories increased significantly – by 16.1 percent y/y. A positive increase in June compared to June 2019 was also in sales in the press, books department, other sales in specialized stores. In other categories, sales dropped , but here and there it was significantly less. In the case of cars, the decrease was 6.4percent y/y, in May it was still 34 percent.
The charts showing the dynamics of retail sales show a reflection in the shape of the letter "V". This means a quick improvement after a strong depression – at least for now. The rebound in industrial production is similar.
"This stage of the recovery is V-shaped. However, as in the case of industrial production, the 'normal' levels are still a bit short of. Likewise, there is still a long way to go to the pace of sales growth characteristic of a mature economic recovery,” mBank experts commented.
If the entire economy were to recover from the coronavirus in this way, it would be the best possible scenario. For now, the forecasts for GDP dynamics for the coming quarters are not as optimistic. Moreover, recently the NBP presented its rather gloomy expectations. According to the July projection of the Polish central bank, the Polish economy will shrink this year by 5.4 percent, and the return to the GDP level before the outbreak of the pandemic will be extended over time.