At sea, the peak began before Children's Day

For many years, the traditional peak in sea freight fell at the end of July and in August. That calendar no longer applies. Last year, a clear increase in volumes began in June, and this year the first signs of heavier traffic were already visible in late May. As a result, the peak is becoming flatter – companies start shipping earlier and no longer concentrate the entire volume in a single time window. This is not a coincidence, but the effect of deliberately building supply chain resilience.

This year also confirms that unpredictability, mainly geopolitical, has become the one thing that can be predicted with certainty. As recently as January or February, it looked as though 2026 would bring a return to regular sailings through the Red Sea, and that this would be a stable sea freight option from China to Europe in around 45 days instead of the 60 days needed to sail around Africa. The escalation of the conflict in the Middle East has not only made transport in the region more difficult and pushed freight costs up, partly through higher fuel prices, but has also delayed any return to the Suez Canal route. Although carriers are once again talking about that possibility, it is difficult to predict today whether and when it will become reality.

This is not the only factor spreading shipments over time. Schedule reliability has deteriorated as well – only around 60% of sailings currently run on schedule. One of the reasons is operational difficulties at Chinese ports caused by August typhoons. Although typhoons are a seasonal phenomenon, their scale this year was significantly greater. European ports are facing problems too – every so often we hear about strikes at German or Dutch ports. On the other hand, it is worth noting that interest in Poland's sea terminals is growing; they post record transshipment volumes year after year and, thanks to their greater flexibility, can serve as an alternative to other European hubs.

An additional source of pressure on the sea freight market is the situation in India. Congestion at some terminals, imbalances in container availability and disruptions to inland haulage are limiting the predictability of operations. On selected lanes this translates into more difficult access to freight space, longer transit times and higher rates. It shows that disruption in one region quickly affects the availability of the global fleet and shipping capacity on other routes as well.

The situation in rail freight is naturally linked to trends at sea. Here the peak comes later, usually at the turn of October and November. Year-on-year growth in volumes on connections from Asia was already visible in the first half of the year, and in the first quarter 29% more trains ran on China–Europe routes than a year earlier. We therefore expect further growth in the coming weeks, as rail remains one of the tools for diversification at a time of uncertainty at sea. Experience from sea freight shows, however, that the peak may begin earlier here too. Companies that want to use rail should therefore be making their decisions now.

Shifts in air cargo routes

The structure and volume of air freight have also changed this year. Restrictions – and at times the complete closure of airspace over the Persian Gulf – caused considerable turbulence in shipments, particularly in the spring. Doha and Dubai, key hubs for flows between Europe and South-East Asia and Australia, were then partly replaced by alternative routings, including via Turkey. Today the Gulf hubs are operating at practically full capacity again, but freight prices have risen, driven among other things by more expensive fuel and airline surcharges, and the situation in the region remains unstable. As a result, companies are moving part of their shipments to air freight earlier, which may make this year's peak flatter here as well.

This matters, because air freight is often used at the last minute precisely for its short transit time, especially in e-commerce. Now that model is changing too. A recent customs change adds to the picture. On 1 July, the European Union abolished the customs duty exemption for shipments valued at up to EUR 150 and replaced it with a temporary charge of EUR 3 per goods category. Imports of low-value shipments have fallen by an estimated more than 30%, while air shipments in this category dropped by nearly 33% year-on-year. This does not mean, however, that Chinese e-commerce is withdrawing from Europe. What is changing above all is the economics of the individual parcel. Under the new conditions, it makes more sense to move larger volumes by sea or rail, build up inventory inside the EU and fulfil orders locally.

At the same time, a new and fast-growing source of demand is emerging on the air freight market: infrastructure for artificial intelligence and data centres. Servers, graphics processors, network components and cooling systems are high in value and closely tied to the schedules for bringing new computing capacity online. Technology customers therefore opt for air freight more often, even at higher rates. This demand partly replaces weaker e-commerce volumes and adds to the competition for cargo space during peak periods.

Inventory is moving to Europe

Demand for warehouse space is not driven solely by the changes in Chinese e-commerce supply chains. It is also fuelled by the higher volumes of goods we see among customers from different countries and many industries, by earlier shipments and by inventory building as a resilience strategy. In Poland, demand for warehouses is at its highest level since 2022; the e-commerce sector alone leased more than 800,000 m² in the first half of the year, and Chinese players are among the most active tenants. A similar trend is visible in other CEE markets, particularly in the Czech Republic and Romania.

When we discuss nearshoring, we usually mean relocating production. Here, it is storage that is being relocated. For Central and Eastern Europe this is another opportunity, because larger inventories inside the EU also mean greater demand for customs services, road distribution, and seaports and rail terminals.

Interest is also growing in services performed directly in the warehouse: co-packing, assembling gift sets and preparing display stands. Customers from the cosmetics and electronics industries, among others, are signalling this to us.

Growth will extend to road transport

Higher volumes across all transport modes and growing warehouse inventories will translate in the coming weeks into road transport as well – in domestic distribution and international shipments alike. The effect will be visible immediately before and during the consumer peaks. The same applies to the last mile. Interest in services such as delivery inside premises or installation grows year after year, and this season should be no exception, especially as there will simply be more goods to handle.

What is driving higher volumes in transport to Europe?

There are several reasons. One of them is the economic climate. Central and Eastern Europe stands out against the rest of the continent with relatively stable economic growth, and Poland remains one of its leaders – over the past two years its economy has grown at a rate of close to 3% a year, driven by both consumption and investment. This translates directly into the amount of goods that need to be brought in ahead of the autumn sales season. Retail has to ensure product availability in the period of highest demand, and that means transport decisions taken further and further in advance. We see this in our own operations as well.

That is not the whole picture. Even though Europe has become a more difficult market for Chinese goods in the e-commerce channel, goods sold through other channels are gaining in importance. US imports from China fell by nearly 30% in 2025, yet China's total exports grew over the same period. The lost volume was redirected to Europe, South-East Asia, Latin America and Africa, among other destinations. EU goods imports from China rose by 6.4%.

Fuel prices remain a question mark

The growth and the volume structure we observe indicate that this year's consumer peaks will also be on an upward trend. Today, however, one of the most important challenges for the entire economy remains the unstable situation in the Middle East, which translates among other things into fluctuations in fuel prices and persistent uncertainty about where they will go next. This is a significant cost factor for many industries, logistics included. If fuel prices continue to rise, this may in time translate into higher transport costs and higher prices of goods, creating inflationary pressure and affecting the pace of consumption.

In logistics, flexibility is becoming ever more important 

This year's season is a good illustration that there is no one-size-fits-all solution in logistics. Goods set off earlier than in previous years and increasingly stop at a European warehouse before reaching the end customer. Decisions on warehouse space and customs services therefore have to be taken in advance, because the availability of both is shrinking faster than in previous seasons. In such conditions, the advantage goes to operators who can combine different transport modes, provide customs services and warehouse space in the region, and advise the customer as early as the planning stage.