Inflation at 12.4 percent y/y is the highest level in 24 years. And this is not the end. Polish economists expect the price growth to accelerate until the summer vacations. A similar view is held by Goldman Sachs bank experts, who after Friday's data from the Central Statistical Office (GUS) updated their inflation forecasts for Poland.
"In the absence of signs that core inflation is weakening, and in view of continued pressure from commodity prices, we expect inflation to rise further in the coming months. In line with our baseline forecasts, inflation will peak this year near 14 percent y/y in the summer months, but identifying peak inflation has proven unreliable for us, other forecasters and the central bank, and we think the balance of risks to inflation remains tilted to the upside," Goldman Sachs' latest note read.
ING BSK economists wrote in a brief comment on Twitter on Friday that higher core inflation is the "biggest challenge for the MPC." They forecast a peak in the main measure of inflation, the CPI (consumer price index) at 15 percent y/y or higher.