ING Bank Śląski economists: second half of year will include high investment activity
Poland’s economy grew 3.9% y/y in Q2 2026, up from 3.5% in Q1, supported by stronger investment, industry and construction. Fixed investment rose 8.4% y/y, and ING Bank Śląski expects growth in capital spending to approach double digits in H2 as National Recovery Plan projects accelerate. Exports increased 10.8% y/y, while household consumption growth slowed to 2.8%. Despite the strong Q2 performance, ING maintained its cautious 3.4% GDP growth forecast for 2026 because of uncertainty surrounding the US-Iran conflict.
Meanwhile, August inflation accelerated to 3.4% y/y, mainly due to higher fuel prices. ING expects rates to remain at 3.75% through 2026, followed by two 25-basis-point cuts in 2027.
