16:29 26 September 2026
Second half of ‘26 will see increased inflation
Poland’s inflation is expected to remain somewhat elevated in the second half of 2026 as fuel-market tax and regulatory measures are withdrawn, according to the Monetary Policy Council’s 2027 guidelines. Average annual CPI inflation should decline in 2027 as global commodity markets normalize, cost pressures ease and domestic demand slows. GDP growth in 2026 is expected to remain close to the 3.6% recorded in 2025, supported by EU fund absorption and stronger investment.
Growth should slow in 2027 as investment momentum weakens, although unemployment is expected to remain low and wage growth to moderate further. Key risks include high public-sector deficits and debt, Middle East tensions affecting oil and gas prices, the war in Ukraine and weakness in the eurozone.
